Gold Market:
In terms of geopolitical friction, Israel held a security consultation meeting to reach a consensus on how to respond to Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that Israel has no intention of opening more fronts. Combined with the signals previously released by Iran, if Israel's response is within a controllable range, it will be considered the end of the current conflict between Iran and Israel, and the recent Middle East geopolitical friction has slightly cooled down. However, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has recently heated up, which requires investors' close attention.
From an economic data perspective, this week's economic data is relatively light, and the focus of the market, the expected U.S. September retail sales monthly rate, is quite stable. Therefore, it is likely that gold prices will maintain a high position for short-term fluctuation and adjustment.
In terms of physical demand, the world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by 4.02 tons to 884.59 tons on October 15th, indicating that the market's enthusiasm for gold has warmed up.
Technically: On the daily chart, the recent market has shown a strong upward trend. In terms of indicators, the market has once again stood above the 20-day moving average, and there is a short-term opportunity for further increases. Intraday, pay attention to the market's adjustment and test the support at the $2645 level.
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Crude Oil Market:
Recently, oil prices have been relatively weak, mainly suffering from a double blow from two aspects. On the one hand, the OPEC monthly report and the International Energy Agency monthly report released in the past two days have both downgraded the growth rate of crude oil demand. Coupled with the market's pessimistic expectations for global economic growth, concerns about the sluggish demand for crude oil will put pressure on oil prices.
On the other hand, both Iran and Israel have recently released signals to maintain relative restraint, indicating that geopolitical frictions have shown signs of cooling down recently. The market's concerns about the risk of supply disruptions in the crude oil market have cooled down, also putting pressure on oil prices.
However, looking at the global scope, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has recently heated up, and there are still variables in geopolitics; in addition, in terms of macroeconomics, the United States is working hard to create signs of a soft economic landing. In the short term, oil prices are generally weak, but it is not advisable to be overly bearish.Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the market trend was strongly bearish in the previous trading session, closing with a large bearish candle, raising concerns about the risk of further oil price declines. In terms of indicators, the market has broken below both the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting a short-term overall bearish trend. Intraday, pay attention to the resistance at $73 and support at $68.