The export data for May has been released, and when combined with the performance of consumption and investment, it can be said that the "three engines" that drive the economy almost simultaneously stalled!
According to data released by the customs, in terms of Renminbi, China's exports in May of this year decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in terms of US dollars, China's exports in May decreased by 7.5% year-on-year. Whether it is in US dollars or Renminbi, exports are on the decline.
It should be noted that in March and April of this year, China's exports were still maintaining rapid growth. However, this only lasted for two months, and in May, there was a sharp downturn, falling into negative growth. What exactly is the reason?
Firstly, the global economy is weak, and consumption is sluggish, leading to a decline in exports from various countries, including South Korea, Vietnam, India, and others.
Data shows: South Korea's exports in May decreased by 15.2%, continuing to slide for eight consecutive months;
Vietnam's exports in May decreased by 5.9%, with the total import and export value plummeting by 18.4%;
India's exports in April decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, and imports decreased by 14%;
Singapore's exports in April decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with exports sliding for seven consecutive months.
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Therefore, it is not only China's exports that are declining, but most export-oriented economies are facing the dilemma of declining exports. This is because the global economy is very weak, with Europe and the United States continuously raising interest rates, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing power, which in turn results in a substantial reduction in foreign trade orders from various countries. In short, everyone has stopped consuming, and naturally, there are not many orders.
Compared with the double-digit export declines of other countries, China's exports only decreased by 0.8%, which is already a very commendable achievement.In addition to the factors of the international environment, there is also the impact of the high base from the same period last year. In May last year, our country had just experienced the recovery after the pandemic, and exports achieved a rapid rebound. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain high growth in May this year.
At present, after a three-month hiatus, exports have once again fallen into negative growth. This signal is unusual and indicates that the impact of the international environment remains a significant challenge. Exports falling into negative growth is not conducive to the recovery of the domestic economy.
In addition to the decline in exports, the performance of consumption and investment is also not ideal. The performance of consumption has always been relatively low. Apart from a certain degree of recovery in catering after the pandemic, the performance in other consumer areas is very average. Consumers are uncertain about the future and lack confidence, which prevents them from spending money. If ordinary people do not spend money, it is difficult for consumption to recover.
In terms of investment, large infrastructure and manufacturing investment play an important role, but it is difficult to drive the overall investment growth rate. Real estate investment continues to decline, and the real estate market has not yet emerged from the winter. The housing market sales data is bleak, and consumers are still waiting and seeing.
Therefore, the current situation is that the "three engines" that drive the economy have almost simultaneously stalled. So, what will drive the economy in the second half of the year?
Then, the experts jumped out. Some experts believe that the real estate market should be rescued. Only when the real estate market is stimulated can the economy fully recover. Other experts believe that the stock market should be stimulated to restore confidence and drive consumption.
In fact, the real estate market does not need to be rescued. The entire real estate market has experienced more than 20 years of prosperity. It is unrealistic to expect another big price increase, and this is not conducive to long-term healthy economic growth. The real estate market only needs to return to a normal level and stabilize.
Just now, major banks have once again announced interest rate cuts. Because everyone's money is not in the real estate market, nor in the stock market, but has flocked to the banks for deposit. There are hundreds of trillions of deposits in the banks. As long as a part of the money flows out of the banks for consumption, the economy can improve significantly. In order to encourage everyone to spend money, all kinds of methods have been tried.
However, the key to ordinary people not spending money lies in the lack of security and confidence. The employment positions of the entire society should be increased, and the business environment should be vigorously improved, so that ordinary people have a stable source of income and can spend money confidently and boldly. Therefore, consumption does not need to be stimulated. As long as there is money in the pocket, ordinary people know how to consume.
In addition, accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading is also a top priority. Although exports are declining, automobile exports have soared for several months in a row, indicating that the automotive industry is rising strongly. We should transform more of these high-profit industries because high-profit industries can create more jobs and truly increase residents' income. This can form a virtuous cycle, instead of blindly rescuing the real estate market and the stock market.The reason why countries such as the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom are considered developed is primarily because they dominate many high-profit industries, such as semiconductors, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and finance. As a major manufacturing country, it is imperative for us to vigorously transform towards high-end industries. In fact, we have already achieved many accomplishments in the transformation and upgrading of our industries, but we still need to continue working hard.