The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, marking the smallest year-on-year increase since February 2021; it increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the rise of the previous two months. However, both increases were 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations. After excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in September, also exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage point.
The higher-than-expected inflation data in September reflected that the U.S. anti-inflation journey is not smooth sailing. However, this is not enough to indicate a halt in the progress of reducing U.S. inflation. Looking at the sub-indicators, the decline in energy prices led to the overall downward trend of inflation, while the rise in prices of new and used cars, as well as clothing and furniture, drove the core goods inflation upward, which is an important reason for the CPI increase exceeding expectations. Significant increases in car insurance, healthcare, and airfare prices drove service inflation upward. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that food prices rose by 0.4% in September, and housing costs increased by 0.2%. These two factors account for more than three-quarters of the CPI increase. Other factors contributing to the CPI increase include a 0.3% rise in used car prices and a 0.2% rise in new car prices. Healthcare service prices rose by 0.7%, and clothing prices increased by 1.1%.
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Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, if international oil prices rise significantly, combined with the low base effect, overall U.S. inflation may rebound, but the risk of a second round of inflation is low. If housing inflation falls back, it could lead to a further slowdown in core inflation.
The focus of the current U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted to employment targets. The better-than-expected non-farm data in September indicated that the U.S. job market still has resilience. The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 people after seasonal adjustment in September, far exceeding economists' predictions of an increase of 150,000 people, while the previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000. After the release of the U.S. non-farm data in September, the market expected the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. With the U.S. inflation rate exceeding expectations again in September, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November has been further strengthened. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed that after the inflation data was announced, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November rose from 80.3% the day before to 86.9%.
The author believes that the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy still has a high degree of uncertainty, and the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts depend on specific economic data, especially the trend changes in employment indicators. However, if inflation shows a clear rebound, it may slow down the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction process.
For some time in the future, the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is one of the main factors affecting market sentiment and trends, and it mainly has an impact through three aspects: First, the market's expectations about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will have an impact on the market. Second, the gap between the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions and market expectations will have an impact on the market. Third, the impact on the market is also different depending on whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates due to weak employment or declining inflation.
The uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will also have a certain impact on China's policy implementation through channels such as capital flows and exchange rates, but the degree of this impact is very limited. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has opened the interest rate cut channel, and the depreciation pressure of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar has been significantly eased; on the other hand, even if the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts slows down, as long as China promotes economic growth through active macro policies, the renminbi against the U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to remain stable or even appreciate.