Gold:
Gold went into a rampage mode overnight, with the maximum increase reaching about $30, and the bullish forces clearly took the upper hand. The situation on the Korean Peninsula has escalated, and geopolitical risks have stimulated an increase in market risk aversion, which has driven gold prices higher in the short term.
On the morning of October 15th local time, North Korea blew up part of the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line connecting North and South Korea, and the South Korean military fired back. North Korea then announced that it was entering a state of readiness for firing, and the situation on the Peninsula suddenly became tense, especially with the deployment of multinational forces in South Korea, which increased distrust between the two sides.
Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and declining interest rates, the proportion of gold in the asset reserves of central banks is likely to increase. Officials from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia, and the Czech Republic collectively expressed their support for increasing gold holdings, and the World Gold Council is optimistic about the trading volume of gold worldwide this year.
Technically: Gold closed a medium-sized positive line on the daily chart, and the short-term adjustment has basically ended. The price center in the 4-hour cycle does not shift downward, and the probability of forming an ascending continuation pattern is high. Intraday long positions can consider the $2652 level.
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Crude Oil:
Crude oil remained weak overnight, and oil prices also hit a new low in nearly half a month. The trend of decline has not ended, and there is still room for oil prices to fall. The Middle East conflict is controlled within a certain range, reducing the risk of crude oil export from the Middle East.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Biden administration that he plans to strike Iran's military facilities, not oil or nuclear facilities. This implies that Israel will take a more limited counterattack. As a result, international oil prices fell by $2 at the end of Monday (October 14th), and the decline once expanded to 4.5%.
The market's interpretation is that this move temporarily cancels or reduces the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil and also reduces the risk for other oil-producing countries in the region. It also means that Iran's production capacity of about 3.3 million barrels per day will not be affected, which accounts for about 3% of the global crude oil supply, with actual exports of about 1.59 million barrels per day.Technical Analysis: Crude oil closed a large bearish candle on the daily chart, but there is a sign of overextended divergence, so be cautious of an intraday rebound. The downward momentum on the 4-hour cycle has not significantly weakened, and it is highly likely that the downtrend will continue. The trend is likely to move up first and then down. For short positions, pay attention to the $72 level.